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Is Mexico the “New” China?

When it comes to global manufacturing, Mexico is quickly emerging as the “new” China.

According to corporate consultant AlixPartners, Mexico has leapfrogged China to be ranked as the cheapest country in the world for companies looking to manufacture products for the U.S. market. India is now No. 2, followed by China and then Brazil.

In fact, Mexico’s cost advantages and has become so cheap that even Chinese companies are moving there to capitalize on the trade advantages that come from geographic proximity.

According to corporate consultant AlixPartners, Mexico has leapfrogged China to be ranked as the cheapest country in the world for companies looking to manufacture products for the U.S. market. India is now No. 2, followed by China and then Brazil. In fact, Mexico’s cost advantages and has become so cheap that even Chinese companies are moving there to capitalize on the trade advantages that come from geographic proximity.

According to corporate consultant AlixPartners, Mexico has leapfrogged China to be ranked as the cheapest country in the world for companies looking to manufacture products for the U.S. market. India is now No. 2, followed by China and then Brazil. In fact, Mexico’s cost advantages and has become so cheap that even Chinese companies are moving there to capitalize on the trade advantages that come from geographic proximity.

The influx of Chinese manufacturers began early in the decade, as China-based firms in the cellular telephone, television, textile and automobile sectors began to establish maquiladora operations in Mexico. By 2005, there were 20-25 Chinese manufacturers operating in such Mexican states Chihuahua, Tamaulipas and Baja.

The investments were generally small, but the operations had managed to create nearly 4,000 jobs, Enrique Castro Septien, president of the Consejo Nacional de la Industria Maquiladora de Exportacion (CNIME), told the SourceMex news portal in a 2005 interview.

China’s push into Mexico became more concentrated, with China-based automakers Zhongxing Automobile Co., First Automotive Works (in partnership with Mexican retail/media heavyweight Grupo Salinas), Geely Automobile Holdings (PINK: GELYF) and ChangAn Automobile Group Co. Ltd. (the Chinese partner of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) andSuzuki Motor Corp.), all announced plans to place automaking factoriesin Mexico.

Not all the plans would come to fruition. But Geely’s plan called for a three-phase project that would ultimately involve a $270 million investment and have a total annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. ChangAn wants to churn out 50,000 vehicles a year. Both companies are taking these steps with the ultimate goal of selling cars to U.S. consumers.

Mexico’s allure as a production site that can serve the U.S. market isn’t limited to China-based suitors. U.S. companies are increasingly realizing that Mexico is a better option than China. Analysts are calling it “nearshoring” or “reverse globalization.” But the reality is this: With wages on the rise in China, ongoing worries about whipsaw energy and commodity prices, and a dollar-yuan relationship that’s destined to get much uglier before it has a chance of improving, manufacturers with an eye on the American market are increasingly realizing that Mexico trumps China in virtually every equation the producers run.

“China was like a recent graduate, hitting the job market for the first time and willing to work for next to nothing,” Mexico-manufacturing consultant German Dominguez told the Christian Science Monitor in an interview last year. But now China is experiencing “the perfect storm … it’s making Mexico – a country that had been the ugly duckling when it came to costs – look a lot better.”

The real eye opener was a 2008 speculative frenzy that sent crude oil prices up to a record level in excess of $147 a barrel – an escalation that caused shipping prices to soar. Suddenly, the labor cost advantage China enjoyed wasn’t enough to overcome the costs of shipping finished goods thousands of miles from Asia to North America. And that reality kick-started the concept of “nearshoring,” concluded an investment research report by Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets Inc. (NYSE: CM)

“In a world of triple-digit oil prices, distance costs money,” the CIBC research analysts wrote. “And while trade liberalization and technology may have flattened the world, rising transport prices will once again make it rounder.”

Indeed, four factors are at work here.

Mexico’s “Fab Four”

  • The U.S.-Mexico Connection: There’s no question that China’s role in the post-financial-crisis world economy will continue to grow in importance. But contrary to the conventional wisdom, U.S. firms still export three times as much to Mexico as they do to China. Mexico gets 75% of its foreign direct investment from the United States, and sends 85% of its exports back across U.S. borders. As China’s cost and currency advantages dissipate, the fact that the United States and Mexico are right next to one another makes it logical to keep the factories in this hemisphere – if for no other reason that to shorten the supply chain and to hold down shipping costs. This is particularly important for companies like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE:WHR) and even the beleaguered auto parts maker Delphi Corp. (PINK: DPHIQ) which are involved in just-in-time manufacturing that requires parts be delivered only as fast as they are needed.
  • The Lost Cost Advantage: A decade or more ago, in any discussion of manufactured product costs, Asia was hands-down the low-cost producer. That’s a given no more. Recent reports – including the analysis by AlixPartners – show that Asia’s production costs are 15% or 20% higher than they were just four years ago. A U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report from March reaches the same conclusion. Compensation costs in East Asia – a region that includes China but excludes Japan – rose from 32% of U.S. wages in 2002 to 43% in 2007, the most recent statistics available. And since wages are advancing at a rate of 8% to 9% a year, and many types of taxes are escalating, too, East Asia’s overall costs have no doubt escalated even more in the two years since the BLS figures were reported.
  • The Creeping Currency Crisis: For the past few years, U.S. elected officials and corporate executives alike have groused that China keeps its currency artificially low to boost its exports, while also reducing U.S. imports. The U.S. trade deficit with China has soared, growing by $20.2 billion in August alone to reach $143 billion so far this year. The currency debate will be part of the discussion when U.S. President Barack Obama visits Chinastarting Monday. Because China’s yuan has strengthened so much, goods made in China may not be the bargain they once were. Those currency crosscurrents aren’t a problem with the U.S. and Mexico, however. As of Monday, the dollar was down about 15% from its March 2009 high. At the same time, however, the Mexican peso had dropped 20% versus the dollar. So while the yuan was getting stronger as the dollar got cheaper, the peso was getting even cheaper versus the dollar.
  • Trade Alliance Central: Everyone’s familiar with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  But not everyone understands the impact that NAFTA has had. It isn’t just window-dressing: Mexico’s trade with the United States and Canada has tripled since NAFTA was enacted in 1994. What’s more, Mexico has 12 free-trade agreements that involve more than 40 countries – more than any other country and enough to cover more than 90% of the country’s foreign trade. Its goods can be exported – duty-free – to the United States, Canada, the European Union, most of Central and Latin America, and to Japan.

In the global scheme of things, what I am telling you here probably won’t be a game-changer when it comes to China. That country is an economic juggernaut and is a market that U.S. investors cannot afford to ignore.  Given China’s emerging strength and its increasingly dominant financial position, it’s going to have its own consumer markets to service for decades to come.

Two Profit Play Candidates

From a regional standpoint, these developments all show that we’re in the earliest stages of what could be an even-closer Mexican/American relationship – enhancing the existing trade partnership in ways that benefit companies on both sides of the border (even companies that hail from other parts of the world).

In the meantime, we’ll be watching for signs of a resurgent Mexican manufacturing industry that’s ultimately driven by Chinese companies – because we know the American companies doing business with them will enjoy the fruits of their labor.

Since this is an early stage opportunity best for investors capable of stomaching some serious volatility, we’ll be watching for those Mexican companies likely to benefit from the capital that’s being newly deployed in their backyard.

Two of my favorite choices include:

  • Wal Mart de Mexico SAB de CV (OTC ADR: WMMVY): Also known as “Walmex,” this retailer has all the advantages of investing in its U.S. counterpart – albeit with a couple of twists. Walmex’s third-quarter profits were up 18% and the company just started accepting bank deposits, a service that should boost store traffic. And while the U.S. retail market is highly saturated – which limits growth opportunities – there are still plenty of places to build Walmex stores south of the border. After all, somebody has to sell products to all those thousands of workers likely to be involved in the growing maquiladora sector.
  • Coca-Cola FEMSA SAB de CV (NYSE ADR: KOF): Things truly do go better with Coke – especially higher wages and an improved lifestyle. According toReuters, Mexicans now consume more Coca-Cola beverages per capita than any other nation in the world. The company just posted a 25% jump in its third-quarter net earnings, aided by a strong 21% jump in revenue. Coca-Cola FEMSA continues to experience strong growth from its Oxxo convenience stores, and strong beer sales, too. And all three product groups are logical beneficiaries of strong maquiladora development and the growing incomes and rising family wealth that will translate into higher consumer spending in the immediately surrounding areas.

Source: Keith Fitz-Gerald is the chief investment strategist for Money Morning and The Money Map Report.

whoever is trying to bring you down

whoever is trying to bring you down

New HomePath.com in Spanish to Help Hispanics Buy Homes

Fannie Mae Launches New HomePath.com in Spanish Aimed at Helping More Hispanics Buy Homes

Interactive Tools and Information Designed to Guide Potential Homeowners Through Homebuying Process and Prevent Foreclosure

Fannie Mae Launches New HomePath.com in Spanish Aimed at Helping More Hispanics Buy Homes

Fannie Mae Launches New HomePath.com in Spanish Aimed at Helping More Hispanics Buy Homes

Fannie Mae announced the company launched a Spanish version of its HomePath.com website designed to help more potential homeowners who speak Spanish purchase Fannie Mae-owned properties.
The new website in Spanish mirrors the English version of HomePath.com featuring an interactive search tool of Fannie Mae-owned properties nationwide, details about HomePath® financing, a mortgage payment calculator, property alerts, as well as information on foreclosure prevention and the Making Home Affordable((SM)) program.

Through HomePath.com, potential homeowners can access a database that includes a wide selection of homes from around the country – including the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico – which can be purchased directly from Fannie Mae. Properties include detailed information and photographs of single-family homes, condominiums, and town houses located in a variety of neighborhoods.

“HomePath.com is a great resource that can help people find a lifelong home for themselves and their families,” said Fannie Mae Executive Vice President, Terry W. Edwards. “The website has a wealth of information to inform and guide potential homeowners through the process of buying a Fannie Mae-owned property.”

The new release of HomePath.com in Spanish is part of a continuous effort aimed at improving access to information and resources which play a vital role in aiding both English and Spanish-speaking populations in the U.S. purchase homes, while helping minimize the impact on communities hit by foreclosures.

For more information about HomePath, please visit www.HomePath.com and click “En Espanol”, or for direct access to the website in Spanish, visit www.es.HomePath.com.

Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America’s secondary mortgage market to enhance the liquidity of the mortgage market by providing funds to mortgage bankers and other lenders so that they may lend to home buyers. Our job is to help those who house America.

Making Home Affordable is a trademark of the United States Department of the Treasury and is used under license

SOURCE Fannie Mae

Hispanics Celebrate Christmas In Uncertain Economic Times

The Heart of the Holidays

Hispanics Celebrate Christmas In Uncertain Economic Times

Hispanics Celebrate Christmas In Uncertain Economic Times

When it comes to the holidays, Hispanic families have always relied on traditions to celebrate the season. Whether attending Posadas, preparing special family recipes, or just getting together to share memories, traditions strengthen family ties and make the season more special. And during this recession, more than half (52 percent) of Hispanics feel that holiday traditions become more important in difficult economic times, according to a new survey* commissioned by Sears.

“This holiday season more than ever, Americans are getting creative with how they will make the most of, and, celebrate their holidays with everything from adopting new traditions to altering the way they shop,” said Don Hamblen, Sears’ chief marketing officer. “Sears is a company known for its long-standing traditions so we understand just how important traditions are to families. Whether it’s a new twist on an old favorite or something entirely new, Sears continues to look for ways to bring value to our customers this holiday season by helping them create and keep family traditions.”

Nearly all Hispanics (94 percent) plan to practice new traditions, especially when it comes to the gifts they will give. Among those practicing new traditions:

  • Nearly three in five (59 percent) will set a price limit on presents
  • Others will use a grab bag approach (20 percent) or give gifts from a whole group of people to share the costs (15 percent)
  • Many (48 percent) also plan to alter the way they shop this holiday, taking advantage of everything stores have to offer, such as:
    • Sales and coupons (91 percent)
    • Layaway plans (33 percent)
    • 0% financing options (23 percent)
    • Shop at discount stores (81 percent), and
    • Venture out to shopping malls on “Black Friday” (57 percent)

No matter what changes they will make, many Hispanics admit that a holiday without traditions would be worse than a holiday without gifts (52 percent)

This year, the celebrated Sears Holiday Wish Book, a long-time shopping tradition for families to make their Christmas wish lists, is being spiced up with the launch of an interactive, online version available at www.sears.com/wishbook. And for those consumers planning to buy more group gifts this year, the Sears Give Together program offers an easy way for them to do so.

Another long-time tradition, Black Friday, is made easier this year with Sears’ “Black Friday Now!” doorbusters – providing earlier savings on everything from home electronics and kitchen and housewares to jewelry and apparel – on each of the five consecutive Saturdays leading up to Thanksgiving. Sears also offers layaway, which is available both in-store and online, enabling customers to reserve holiday gifts, including Black Friday Now! doorbusters, pay for them over time and pick them up right before the holidays.

ShopYourWay(TM) serves to change traditional holiday shopping altogether by giving customers a wide-variety of new, convenient ways to shop. Sears ShopYourWay offers personalized and convenient shopping options which allows for shopping to revolve around the customer 24/7. With convenient options such as Web2Store and Sears’ Personal Shopper, customers can get what they want, when they want and how they want when they shop in store or online.

For more information, visit www.sears.com.

*An online survey of 400 nationally representative Hispanics ages 18 and older

About Sears, Roebuck and Co.

Sears, Roebuck and Co., a wholly owned subsidiary of Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD), is a leading broadline retailer providing merchandise and related services. Sears, Roebuck offers its wide range of home merchandise, apparel and automotive products and services through more than 2,300 Sears-branded and affiliated stores in the United States and Canada, which includes approximately 929 full-line and approximately 1,200 specialty stores in the U.S. Sears, Roebuck also offers a variety of merchandise and services through sears.com, landsend.com, and specialty catalogs. Sears, Roebuck offers consumers leading proprietary brands including Kenmore, Craftsman, DieHard and Lands’ End — among the most trusted and preferred brands in the U.S. The company is the nation’s largest provider of home services, with more than 12 million service calls made annually. For more information, visit the Sears, Roebuck website at www.sears.com or the Sears Holdings Corporation website at www.searsholdings.com.

About the Survey

The Sears Holiday Traditions Survey was conducted by Kelton Research between Oct. 16, 2009 and Oct. 22, 2009 using an email invitation and an online survey. Quotas are set to ensure reliable and accurate representation of the Hispanic U.S. population ages 18 and over. Results of any sample are subject to sampling variation. The magnitude of the variation is measurable and is affected by the number of interviews and the level of the percentages expressing the results. In this particular study, the chances are 95 in 100 that a survey result does not vary, plus or minus, by more than three percentage points from the result that would be obtained if interviews had been conducted with all persons in the universe represented by the sample.

SOURCE Sears Holdings

Photo courtesy: iStockPhoto

Hispanics Minding Money in Downturn No Sacrificing Pleasures

Tough times call for tough decisions, but Latinos are finding ways to mind their budgets while still spending on the small pleasures and privileges they consider vital to their happiness and well-being.

Hispanics Minding Money in Downturn Without Sacrificing Pleasures, Research Finds

Hispanics Minding Money in Downturn Without Sacrificing Pleasures, Research Finds

C&R Research recently polled its LatinoEyes panel to assess behaviors by the “majority minority” during the recession, and found that “the recession has forced Hispanics to rethink what’s luxury and what’s necessity,” explained Angelina Villarreal, a C&R vice president. “What we’re seeing is that while this group is budget-conscious, its members don’t want to give up their quality of life.”
C&R, in its sample of 825 panel participants, found that the most recession-impacted segments were Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, and Central Americans; 58 percent reported that the recession had a significant impact on their lives.

However, a majority of Hispanics, particularly the young, was unwilling to relinquish cell phones (69 percent), and 81 percent (notably Mexicans) couldn’t do without driving their cars. Paid television services remain important to 67 percent, mostly the older generation, and the home Internet connection, particularly among fluent bicultural Hispanics, is maintained by 65 percent.

While nearly half of those polled said they were clipping coupons and buying clearance clothing, over three-fourths of Latinos are still spending on dining out or ordering in and going out for entertainment or to the movies, but with less frequency. And nearly three-fourths of the women in this sector haven’t let the downturn affect their purchasing of personal care products.

“Hispanics are trying to make do — maybe better than make do — if they can without abandoning their favorite products, entertainment, restaurants, and services,” Villarreal said. “And it looks like they’re succeeding.”

Chicago-based C&R Research is one of the nation’s largest, independent full-service research firms. Since 1959, it has provided custom-designed qualitative and quantitative research for a wide variety of business-to-business and business-to-consumer clients. Their specialty research expertise includes youth, boomers, parents and shoppers. In addition,( )C&R’s consultancy division, LatinoEyes, specializes in the U.S. Hispanic and Latin American markets. Its research team has a deep understanding of both the U.S. and Latino cultures.

SOURCE C&R Research

‘Frente a la Crisis – Facing the Crisis’

Economy crisis impact on Latinos examined in new Radio Bilingue series

Families across the nation are feeling the dire effects of the current economic crisis but probably none more so than Latinos, who may be the hardest hit by job loss, home foreclosures, loss of health insurance and deeper poverty – topics that are the focus of a new national series by Radio Bilingue: “Frente a la Crisis/Facing the Crisis.”

Economy crisis impact on Latinos examined in new Radio Bilingue series

Economy crisis impact on Latinos examined in new Radio Bilingue series

This comprehensive, multimedia series is funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and The California Endowment. “Frente a la Crisis/Facing the Crisis” takes an inside look at the effects of the economic crisis in the Latino community, and is airing on Satelite Radio Bilingue’s nationally-distributed news and talk services, Linea Abierta and Edicion Semanaria de Noticiero Latino.

Linea Abierta broadcasts daily at noon and Edicion Semanaria airs weekly on Fridays at 4 p.m. — each featuring weekly episodes of the series over a twelve month period that began in September.

Linea Abierta broadcasts weekly talk shows on the economy, featuring roundtable discussions and interviews with newsmakers, and Edicion Semanaria airs in-depth feature reports, on issues ranging from health insurance loss, to accessing food to green jobs.

In addition, the national coverage will include visits by the Linea Abierta team to the epicenters of the recession to broadcast stories from the communities hardest hit by the economy. The live broadcasts will portray on the national airwaves outstanding efforts at the local level, including community-organizing initiatives, citizen ideas and government programs to help workers and homeowners get out of the economic crisis. The network’s online platforms also are being used as part of the informational media campaign.

In Central California — ground zero for joblessness and foreclosures in the nation — the project includes a specialized look at the impact of unemployment on Latinos through live talk shows, promotional spots and educational messages on employment issues and services.

Radio Bilingue is working with community partners to connect Spanish-speaking Latinos with resources to navigate the unemployment insurance system, apply for benefits, learn about eligibility requirements, emergency compensation, extended benefits, reemployment services, self-employment and small business help.

Funds are provided by: The California Endowment, Evelyn and Walter Haas Jr. Fund, James Irvine Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and ZeroDivide Foundation.

www.radiobilingue.org

Source: Radio Bilingue